Today’s chart is thank’s to this tweet by Mohamed El-Erian. Government bonds bore most people, in part because they promise low fixed rates of return, barely above bank deposit rates, and often lock in their rates for long periods of time over which inflation could eat away the value of the principal returned at the […]
Join us on March 14th at 6:30pm China time (6:30am EDT for the US, 10:30am London time) as I present a webinar with Kristal.ai on high income investing in a low rate world. I’ll provide an outlook on the macro interest rate picture with implications for high yield bonds, preferred stocks, and dividend investing, with […]
This month, HKMC Annuity Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the HKSAR Government’s own Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation, closes its first subscription round for the HKMC Annuity policy that promises a guaranteed fixed income for life for Hong Kong permanent residents aged 65 and older. According to the HKMC Annuity plan calculator, a 65 year […]
One of my favorite books is Ben Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor”. This page from the fourth revised edition (1973) gives a short but fascinating history of some amazing price swings in the not-too-obscure category of foreign government bonds, interesting in part because the government issuers aren’t around in the same form any more (Cuba had […]
I attended the China International Bond Investor Forum on October 26th, 2017 in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong, and despite its remote location, was surprised it was so lightly attended (maybe 50 total, with over half the seats empty) given the size and importance of the Chinese bond market. The main takeaways include: The China bond […]
On October 24th, 2017, GFM’s Tariq Dennison presented an intensive 1-day repo workshop to over 60 professional bond traders in Manila, Philippines, with the goal of developing an active and liquid repo market for local Philippine peso bonds. “Repo” is short for “sale and repurchase agreement”, and is the main way banks and funds finance […]
On several occasions, I’ve discussed the somewhat intuitive relationship between population pyramids and interest rates / yield curves. One one end, bottom-heavy, triangular population pyramids would tend to drive higher interest rates, as the abundance of young people pushes overall economic growth and demand for credit, as we have seen in countries like India and […]
I wasn’t too surprised to hear Kenya recently offered KES 150 million (US$1.5 mio) in government bonds exclusively through mobile phones. These bonds are supposed to pay 10% interest tax free (vs 14% on their benchmark institutional 10 year bonds) and be available in denominations as low as KES 3,000 (US$30), and this is hopefully […]