Digital Document Decade

Will the 2020s be the Digital Document Decade?

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Technology

My latest article in the January 2020 newsletter of the Hong Kong chapter of the Society of Trust and Estate Practitioners (STEP) is titled “Digital Document Decade“, and asks the questions about the future of all-digital signatures applying to wills, trusts, and other paperless legal documents in Hong Kong and other jurisdictions by the year […]

Buffett and Munger’s 2007 Warning About Market Valuations

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Video

Today’s video is from the 2007 Berkshire meeting, where Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett discuss the rise of corporate profits as a percentage of GDP’s rise from around 4% to over 8% as a reason “not to swing for the fences” at valuations then. Part of the rise in this ratio up to 2007 was […]

US Stocks More Expensive than 1999-2000 DotCom Bubble High, According to EV/EBITDA

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Charts

Today’s chart is thank’s to this tweet by the People’s Hedge Fund Manager, showing the EV/EBITDA valuation ratio of the S&P 500 US stock index over the past 30 years. EV/EBITDA is sometimes called the “acquirer’s multiple”, and has certain advantages over Price / Earnings (P/E) as a valuation metric. Here are five earlier posts […]

S&P 500 Low Volatility Factor 1972-1990

Lower Risk, Higher Returns

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Charts

Today’s chart comes from one of the top 10 blog posts of S&P Dow Jones Index’s Indexology blog, showing how the low volatility factor has performed on US stocks over the past 40+ years since 1972. In other words, for the past several decades, the pattern for US stock investors has not been higher risk […]

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle Moving Assets to Delaware

Posted Leave a commentPosted in News

I usually pay no attention to news about the British royal family, even the marriage of American actress Meghan Markle into it, but this story of Prince Harry and the Duchess of Sussex moving assets to Delaware did catch my eye. As a born US citizen, Meghan remains subject to US taxes on her worldwide […]

Economic profit by industry, 2010-2014

Some industries really are more profitable than others

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Charts, Uncategorized

One of the concepts in academic economics which seems to obviously false in the real world is the idea that firms in a competitive market will earn “economic profits” of zero. An oversimplified version of that would be to say that after subtracting out all economic costs, including opportunity costs, there is no advantage of […]

Stock Markets by Country 1899 vs 2019

119 Years of Investment Returns, According to Credit Suisse

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Charts, Investing, Wealth Management

This morning’s ferry read is the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2019, for which I have to thank this excellent Twitter thread by Cambria’s Meb Faber for pointing out. Two of the charts I found worth a screenshot and share here show shares of global stock markets have changed since 1900 by country (header […]

Performance of Stocks vs Bonds vs 60/40 in Japan, USD net terms, 1984-2019

60/40 Has Worked Well, Even in Japan

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Charts

One of the most memorable lines I heard from my professors back at UC Berkeley was “what I am about to teach you here should work almost anywhere in the world, except Japan”. This was over a decade and a half ago, when many portfolios still needed to define whether they were “ex-Japan” and “ex-China” […]

Long-term, valuation is all that matters

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Investing

I recently found some charts on this tweet thread worth checking against some of my earlier posts on investing with a value tilt. These are similar to my earlier chart about forward 10 year investment returns versus on CAPE ratio, and can be summarized in the title of the first chart “Long term, valuation is […]

retirement statistics

75% of 65+ Men Retired Today vs 25% in 1880

Posted Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

In the “shocking statistics” category, I wanted to post the following quote in this Morningstar article on the US retirement savings crisis: The notion of retiring is a recent phenomenon. In 1880, roughly 75% of men 65 years and older were still working. Life expectancy (at birth) was about 45 years. Today only about 25% […]